Letter to a friend: Fusion energy -- I would love to be proven wrong, but I fear I may be correct

A good friend sent me a YouTube clip about a global quest to produce non-polluting energy.  

I responded as follows...

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Hi John,

 

Interesting indeed. A fine example of the hope that "technology will save us". Nuclear fusion is definitely the supreme hope of these attempts. In theory, it is very appealing, but in practice it is most likely not achievable.

 

As a technologist myself, it is not easy to say that technology will NOT save us here. Why?

We do not have the time to implement such complicated ventures (refer to my last blog post). If you cannot get it up and running within this decade, then forget it. The reason for this is that we have now come so close to irreversible tipping points that long-range uncertain solutions will not work. The two polar ice caps are the world’s “air conditioners” and they are degrading faster than the scientists predicted. When those polar ice caps go all bets are off. Here in Canada, we see the effects of polar ice cap degradation. It is staggering and obvious. If that is not evidence enough, we now see daily news reports of unusual wildfire activity, unusual  flooding, and unusual droughts. These are caused by a fundamental shift in the earth’s environment and biosphere.

 

So what to do? Our options are rapidly decreasing , but a massive shift in the way we organize and live are required. The human species can make global, radical, and rapid changes. The present COVID-19 pandemic has proven that. However, we seem only capable of this kind of change when a catastrophe is staring us in the face. If we wait for such a clear and desperate environmental situation, it will then most likely be too late. Some changes that are coming will then be irreversible.

 

New technologies will help to mitigate this process, but by now it is highly unlikely that any technology will save us, or stave off the crisis that is coming. In the view of many environmental scientists, the best we can hope for is to mitigate future effects and prolong the inevitable process. The two books referred to in my article lay out this point of view.

 

To complicate this process, the fossil fuel industry is still busy distracting us from the real problem, so they can keep making money on fossil fuel extraction. A book by Michael Mann, The New Climate War spells this all out. For future proof, we have just to read the latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is a blistering description of the environmental situation. Greta Thunberg has correctly stated that it is an accurate warning of what is coming, but it still lacks clear leadership by governments as to what they are going to do about it in the limited time still available to us.

 

John, I am sorry  to be so pessimistic. I would love to be proven wrong, but I fear that I may be correct.

 

Let us continue on, doing what we can. It is the best therapy for the future times that I can think of.

 

In friendship,

 

The Rebellious Seeker

Friday, 13 August 2021