Why Ukraine and why now?
Ukraine and Russia have a long turbulent history. In 1922, Ukraine was one of the founding members of the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR). Seventy years later, Gorbachev initiated a period of restructuring (Perestroika) and a new era of transparency and openness (glasnost). This led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany (1989) and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. As part of this collapse, Ukraine declared its independence from Russia.
Recent Ukrainian history includes the 2014 coup, also called the Maidan revolution. This resulted in the expulsion of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich. In a subsequent election in 2016, Volodymyr Zelensky, a TV comedian, won the presidency in a decisive victory of 73% of the votes over the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko. Since his election victory, Zelensky has displayed a decidedly pro-Western stance.
Ukraine has regions that are populated with large numbers of Russian speaking people. Crimea has a majority of Russian speakers. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. There is also a significant Russian speaking population in the east of Ukraine in the Dunbas region. The Russian population there obtained separate recognition as part of the Minsk Agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia in 2015. On February 22, 2022, Putin rejected the Minsk Agreement. This was a precursor to the present Russian invasion into Ukraine.
The background to these events goes back to the formation of two opposing alliances. The NATO alliance was founded in 1949. Russia was refused membership in NATO. Since its inception, NATO has expanded eastward. The Warsaw pact was an alliance formed in 1955 under Soviet hegemony to counteract the NATO alliance. Some of the countries joining NATO had been previously invaded by Russia, i.e., Hungary in 1954 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. The Soviet Union (USSR) suffered a serious decline after the collapse of the Soviet system in 1991. Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, formalized this collapse of the system.
The reasons for the Russian invasion of Ukraine
For a long time, Putin has mourned the collapse of the previous Soviet system (USSR). In reaction to NATO expansion and Ukraine’s pro-western sympathies. Putin has decided to make a stand. He amassed Russian troops on the Ukraine border. He said that this was only to persuade Ukraine to promise never to seek membership in NATO. Perhaps a traditional politician would agree with this demand, hoping that in the future he could break this promise. However, Zelensky is not a traditional politician. He believed that this was not the will of the Ukrainian people. His government has refused to accept this demand. This would set an unacceptable precedent. If large nations can compel small nations to do this, other small nations could be under a similar threat.
Some commentators have thought that Putin would not invade Ukraine, despite the massive military buildup on Ukraine’s borders. They thought that this would only inflame anti- Russian sentiment and isolate Russia on the world stage. These people were right about the expected results, but wrong about the projection of no invasion.
The immediate results of the invasion
The damage done to Ukraine is horrible and is continuing as I write. Putin thought that the Ukrainian incursion would be quick. Using his huge military advantage, he must have thought that the invasion would be easy. The opposite has occurred. Ukraine’s stubborn resistance and hostility to Russia is increasing as the war unfolds.
Russia is being rejected worldwide for its actions in Ukraine. The United Nations special general assembly has voted to demand that Russia stop its offensive in Ukraine and immediately withdraw its troops. 141 nations voted in favour of this resolution. Only 4 nations supported Russia: Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Eritrea. All these nations are ruled by dictators. There were 35 abstentions.
Lessons to be learned
Violence in the short term seems to succeed. But in the long term it fails. ML King said, “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice”.
There have been many debates about the role of NATO, which was founded in 1949. The role of the USA in NATO has been disputed. America has the largest military force in the world, and it has a history of international military interventions – Vietnam (1961-75), Afghanistan (2001-21) and Iraq (2003-11). The USA has also meddled in the affairs of its Latin American neighbours (Chile, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Honduras, Grenada and Cuba – to mention only a few).
Russia has good reason to be wary of anything that the USA is doing on its borders. However, the European nations are strongly in support of NATO. NATO members have joined voluntarily and have not intervened militarily in Russia. With the latest Russian incursion into Ukraine, NATO states are now more than ever committed to remain in NATO.
The Ukrainian invasion is the latest dispute between Russian with its allies (which may include China in the future) and the USA and its NATO allies. A neutral buffer zone in the south with Ukraine and Finland/Sweden in the north could provide a practical buffer zone between these two opposing powers. However, it will only work if these buffer zones are truly neutral and independent.
Let us hope that peace will prevail between these two opposing factions, both of which are nuclear powers. What a pity that in Reykjavik in 1986, Reagan and Gorbachev could not conclude the nuclear arms dismantlement that they discussed. One can only hope that the solution they considered will one day become reality.
Rebellious Seeker
Ottawa, March 5, 2022
Thank you Eric for a good summary. I am reading a book called The Road to Unfreedom by historian Timothy Snyder. It describes Mr. Putin's evolution from a KGB operative to an ethno-nationalist strongman. You are right in saying that big powers, empires really, prey upon smaller countries. It was not right in Vietnam, Cuba, etc.and it is not right in Ukraine.
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