How to understand the future – Now

As one ages (that’s me) one begins to put all the little parts of one’s experience together and search for a whole that might explain it all. In the past I have written about self-interest. This is a characteristic that every species seems to have. It motivates us to struggle and survive. Homo Sapiens with this strong self-interest, has persevered over all others and now we are on top of the pyramid of control (at least we think we are!). However, self-interest has run amok (i.e. putting ourselves and our tribe above all others). This excessive self-interest will do us in and could destroy our beautiful planet.

Another way of looking at this is to see the battle between individuals and community. What is most important? 

Individual creativity can produce amazing results. Technological breakthroughs and their widespread application can change us profoundly. And, it must be admitted, the recent technological discoveries have occurred in countries with a liberal, democratic and capitalistic base. There was freedom to experiment and try new ideas. However, just as self-interest has run amok, so has individual freedom. The supreme goal in life has got to be more than my individual pursuit of happiness. There is a larger world out there.

I am now reading two books that try and fathom our present state and our possible future. One book delves into history to explore how we got to our present state, and the other attempts to foresee our future.

Age of Anger: A History of the Present by Pankaj Mishra traces the history of mankind’s intellectual evolution  from the time of the Enlightenment in 18^th century Europe. Europe was riding itself of the vestiges of medieval thinking and new world views were emerging. Mishra sees the difference in the views of Voltaire and Rousseau in France as a key to understanding present trends. 

Voltaire exalted the creative individual. He scorned the influence of the church and revelled in the new role of intellectual elites. This was often combined with his admiration of autocratic state power. 

Rousseau rebelled against this intellectual elitism. He stressed the role of community and culture that emerged from the people. He was not willing to abandon past learned truths. He stressed community over naked individualism and emotion over the intellect in influencing human affairs.

This cauldron of intellectual ferment in Europe brought forth a new concept of liberal democracy which was bolstered by technological discoveries and the industrial revolution. This European world view was seen as the panacea for the world’s ills. This world view was spread by European colonialism occurring at the time.

Mishra throws doubt onto the credibility of this European-based world view. When this is imposed on distant colonized countries, strong resistance often occurred. Even now, in the  home base of Europe and America, populist backlashes are occurring.

The second book that I have read is Yuval Noah Harari’s third book, Twenty-one Lessons for the 21^st Century. 

Whereas Mishra’s book studied the history of the present, Harari tries to fathom our shared future. There is no shortage of present-day problems to confront – the threat of nuclear war, climate change that could lead to ecological collapse and technological disruption caused by advances in bioengineering and artificial intelligence (AI). These problems are compounded by the rise of populist movements and growing nationalism. New technologies could result in positive outcomes – but it depends on who controls them. The new tools that are emerging could spell economic and environmental disaster in malevolent hands.

So, we come back to personal ethics – or if you will, the need for regulated self-interest and positive community concern. Perhaps we need to look again at past cultures and values. After all, they were developed by homo sapiens struggling for a meaningful existence, even though their contexts were very different from ours. They often learned that cooperation yielded more peaceful progress than self-centred conflict.

In the midst of all this bewildering information, one scrambles for a solution. Harari has warned that growing nationalism is an obstacle. Since our present-day problems are global and are not contained within nation states, the solutions must also be global.

Baffled by the immensity of all of this we can still act. There are practical things that we can do.

The first thing that we can all do is quieten down, meditate deeply and ponder our next course of action.

Then we can act;

• So that our self-interest is broad enough to recognize the self-interest of others, and

• So that my individual rights recognize the larger community rights.